Monday, August 10, 2009

Analysis of how the Jaffna people voted in the Municipal Council Elections

(I wrote this first as an email to colleagues and friends. Groundviews published it yesterday night here. I reproduce it here on my blog)

It appears to me that the TNA and TULF might have got more of the Tamil votes than EPDP in Jaffna.

Out of 13 seats for the UPFA, 4 have gone to Muslims candidates. 9 are from EPDP.

A Northern Displaced Muslim friend of mine says that 3000 votes were cast by the displaced Muslims living in Puttalam (If anyone has a better/accurate number i am willing to correct myself on this). Moulavi Sufiyan of Independent Group 1 himself polled around 1100 votes. The rest went to UPFA.

Total number of votes polled by UPFA is 10,000. If you subtract the Muslim votes from the 10,000 only about 8000 votes have gone to the EPDP from Jaffna Tamil residents. (i substract only 2000 since about 1000 have gone to the Moulavi) TNA has then got almost the equivalent number of votes that EPDP polled- 8000 - from Jaffna Tamil residents. Add to this TULF's votes that's 9000 votes. More than actually what EPDP received. This also reduces the number of Jaffna MC Tamil residents who have actually voted from 20,000 to around 17,000.

Remedius, TNA's Mayoral Candidate has topped the preferential votes (4,233 votes). That is 1000 votes more than the second on the preferential list (an EPDP candidate). UPFA's Mayoral Candidate Theyvendran didnt get enough preferential votes to be elected.

It is also no secret that most of the 3000 resettled from the Jaffna IDP camps on the 5th of August were from Kurunagar. A key constituency for the EPDP. This link is from EPDP's Official site: http://epdpnews.com/news.php?id=4130&ln=tamil

No wonder Douglas Devananda has told Daily Mirror that he is disappointed with the results. He has told the local newspapers that it was a loss in Jaffna and a heavy one in Vavuniya.

26 comments:

sittingnut said...

i posted this comment at groundviews but as usual with my comments there it does not appear ( yet ) , since i get censored regularly there, for being frank and correct, i do not expect it to appear if sanjana has anything to do with it. such fear of a frank response! lets see what you do in your own blog
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this post counts as an analysis ? lol. this is a joke. period .

this is why i say it is a joke -
unverifiable anecdotes ( "friend of mine says" etc), funny numbers ( pucked from air 3000 from "friend ", 3000 again for resettlement ), racist assumptions with no evidence to back them up (assume all muslims votes only for muslim ind group 1 and upfa, assume no tamil votes for ind group 1, assume that most resettlement was in kurunagar, and assume kurunagar ppl are epdp, etc) , and of course lot of racist labels ( ppl are racial labels not individuals with brain and heart it seems )

can anybody but a foolish out of touch racists take this sort of poor stuff seriously ?
but then this site is famous for such ppl and for taking such stuff seriously. (that btw is why it gets things wrong when it come to predictions, read the past posts and judge for yourself)
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this site also deletes comments that describe things as they are and asks for facts instead of assumptions.
it also deletes comments that are not afraid to call racists, racists, based on their statements (according to conformity with basic definition of racism) .

why should we call racists, by that word?
bc same sort of racist ideology was used by the ltte terrorist murderers for justification of atrocities, but may be admin here prefer to feed racist ideology by opposing such exposure? that is why he gives space to racists like teh poster above but deletes opponents of racism. and then call that citizen journalism. go figure!

Aachcharya said...

Indeed "frank" is the best way to describe your response.

I dont know how it is racist to analyse elections results on the basis of how ethnic groups vote. If i am wrong to do it then scholars like Yogendra Yadav will also be doing racist work.

1. The SL elections dept webiste has no detailed polling booth by polling booth account of the elections. This friend of mine works for Badurdeen's resettlement Ministry, whose 4 candidates have been elected on the UPFA tickets for the Jaffna MC.

2. You can call and ask Moulavi Sufiyan as to whether he got any Tamil votes.

3. As for Kurunagar resettlement i refer you to EPDP's link itself.

4. You are never worried by the racism that comes from people in the govt, JVP and JHU. For you only Tamils can be racist. No wonder this labelling-only-agenda blogging and commenting of you gets blocked by Sanajana. I wont. I will let you spat it out to prove yourself to teh world at large that you are a fool.

I thank you for reading and regret the waste of my time in engaging with you.

sittingnut said...

1/ in the first place i don't want to discus this here fully since it was posted here only bc of censorship. but i will deal with rather silly points raised by you here.

2/ did i say you are racist bc you analyzed elections results on the basis of how ethnic groups? no. you are deliberately and foolishly avoiding the the point i made.

i said you are racist bc of the assumptions you make about ethnic groups' voting. i was very clear in my above comment. you do not provide any valid evidence for such assumptions. why ? bc you think like a racist and don't even feel the need for evidence. you willful avoidance in addressing this point says a lot.

3/ whatever you say about your friend does not change the purely anecdotal nature of you statements since they cannot be verified .your arguments are a joke

4/ epdp is an acceptable source for you? didn't they express confidence of winning too? does that mean they won ? your arguments are a joke

5/ you silly attempt run from the issue at hand by saying i am not accusing other ppl of racism is
a) beside the point
b) not valid bc i have in fact aways opposed all racism wherever and by whoever it was. check my blog ( and some others prominent ones from the start if you want the facts ).

6/ as anyone can read in above points and others in my earlier comment, i gave fully justified reasons for think you a racist based on your own statements. i also made other points beside that to point out that your post is of poor quality as far as "analysis" goes . any reader can judge if mine is a "labelling-only-agenda" .


7/ very instructive ( and notable, as in take a note of for future refernce) to know that you understand sanjana's censorship at groundviews as you say in twitter and imply here.
btw if i am such a fool as you say and my arguments are without merit why is sanjana so afraid of letting readers judge, may i ask ( after all he published downright tangent comments by others there in the same thread.)?
since you understand censorship, may be you should explain? lol .
(i for one can never understand censorship it. that is why i oppose all censorship, even of tamilnet (website i despise ), whose censorship i actively and using my blog usefully ( for thousands of ppl ) oppose. do you want details? after your failure to note my opposition to all forms ofr racism may be you do? )

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