General Elections 2010: If ACTC had not split could TNA have secured a 6th seat in Jaffna?

It is widely speculated that UPFA (EPDP) might not have got their 3^rd seat in the Jaffna electoral district and TNA could have got their 6^th seat if the votes received by the Tamil Congress had gone for the TNA. Lets us scientifically test this claim:

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The present configuration for seat allocation in the Jaffna Electoral district has been worked out as follows:

Total number of relevant votes

(Votes of all parties receiving more than 5% of the votes) = 125,365

“Resulting number” (Number of votes needed to secure one seat) = 125, 365 / 8 = 15,670

(calculated for 8 seats; one seat bonus going for the TNA)

Hence in the first round of seat allocation

TNA – 65, 119 / 15, 670 = 4 seats and a remainder of 2439 votes + 1 bones seat

UPFA – 47,622/15, 670 = 3 seats and a remainder of 612 votes

UNP – 12,624/15,670 = 0 seats and a remainder of 12,624 votes

7 seats allocated one seat yet to be allocated. So in the second round of allocation the 8^th seat goes to UNP for having highest number of remainder votes.

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If the ACTC (TNPF) had not split and the 6,362 votes it received had gone to the TNA the seat allocation would have been as follows:

Total number of relevant votes

(Votes of all parties receiving more than 5% of the votes) = 131, 727

“Resulting number” (Number of votes needed to secure one seat) = 131, 727 / 8 = 16,465

(calculated for 8 seats; one seat bonus going for the TNA)

Hence in the first round of seat allocation

TNA – 71,481 / 16, 465 = 4 seats and a remainder of 5,621 votes + 1 bonus seat

UPFA – 47,622/16, 465 = 2 seats and a remainder of 14,692 votes

UNP – 12,624/16,465 = 0 seats and a remainder of 12, 624 votes

Only 6 seats allocated in the first round. 7^th seat allocated to UPFA having highest number of remainder votes, which means they gain their 3^rd seat. 8^th seat allocated to UNP for having second highest number of remainder votes.

HENCE THE CONGRESS VOTES ADDED TO TNA (if the split had not happened) DOES NOT MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE FINAL SEAT ALLOCATION. UPFA would have got their 3^rd seat irrespective.