Friday, April 09, 2010

General Elections 2010: If ACTC had not split could TNA have secured a 6th seat in Jaffna?

It is widely speculated that UPFA (EPDP) might not have got their 3rd seat in the Jaffna electoral district and TNA could have got their 6th seat if the votes received by the Tamil Congress had gone for the TNA. Lets us scientifically test this claim:

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The present configuration for seat allocation in the Jaffna Electoral district has been worked out as follows:

Total number of relevant votes

(Votes of all parties receiving more than 5% of the votes) = 125,365

“Resulting number” (Number of votes needed to secure one seat) = 125, 365 / 8 = 15,670

(calculated for 8 seats; one seat bonus going for the TNA)

Hence in the first round of seat allocation

TNA – 65, 119 / 15, 670 = 4 seats and a remainder of 2439 votes + 1 bones seat

UPFA – 47,622/15, 670 = 3 seats and a remainder of 612 votes

UNP – 12,624/15,670 = 0 seats and a remainder of 12,624 votes

7 seats allocated one seat yet to be allocated. So in the second round of allocation the 8th seat goes to UNP for having highest number of remainder votes.

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If the ACTC (TNPF) had not split and the 6,362 votes it received had gone to the TNA the seat allocation would have been as follows:

Total number of relevant votes

(Votes of all parties receiving more than 5% of the votes) = 131, 727

“Resulting number” (Number of votes needed to secure one seat) = 131, 727 / 8 = 16,465

(calculated for 8 seats; one seat bonus going for the TNA)

Hence in the first round of seat allocation

TNA – 71,481 / 16, 465 = 4 seats and a remainder of 5,621 votes + 1 bonus seat

UPFA – 47,622/16, 465 = 2 seats and a remainder of 14,692 votes

UNP – 12,624/16,465 = 0 seats and a remainder of 12, 624 votes

Only 6 seats allocated in the first round. 7th seat allocated to UPFA having highest number of remainder votes, which means they gain their 3rd seat. 8th seat allocated to UNP for having second highest number of remainder votes.

HENCE THE CONGRESS VOTES ADDED TO TNA (if the split had not happened) DOES NOT MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE FINAL SEAT ALLOCATION. UPFA would have got their 3rd seat irrespective.

4 comments:

Orchids said...

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pilot said...

u myt b ryt scientifically but the unity wud hav inspired more voters to walk into the polling station to caste their votes giving their support for the same cause!

pilot said...

hence, more participation, more votes leading to more seats! isn't it so?

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